Caliphate, Islamic Republic or something else? The fate of Turkey’s democracy is dark.
Coup d’état? I’m not buying it.
The lack of coordination evidenced yesterday by the military forces who carried out the alleged coup in Turkey is not consistent with the international reputation of the Turkish army. The televisions showed a helicopter firing, trying to hit targets on the ground. But where were the impact of the bullets? Neither human bodies nor the road, signs or anything else were hit.
I cannot shake the feeling that yesterday events in Turkey were orchestrated by Erdogan, aiming increase its power. We are witnessing a purge, designed to eliminate all those who oppose Erdogan. Both within the Turkish army as within his own party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP). This purge aims especially the military and the AKP members that still are Gulenists.
Historically, as it sees itself as the protector of Turkey’s secularism and democracy, the Turkish army has intervened in the political sphere, whenever deemed necessary to preserve democracy. The military has had several tensions with Erdogan’s AKP over its brand of political Islamism. Moreover, Mr. Erdogan’s relationship with justice is also not peaceful, but so far the decisions of the Turkish Constitutional Supreme Court have been in accordance with the rule of law.
Since the 2007 General Staff’s E-memorandum, targeting Erdogan’s non-secular politics, the relation between Erdogan and the military worsened. The 2010 constitutional referendum, which gave Erdogan’s government more control over judicial system, allowed the creation of prosecutors with extraordinary powers to accuse secular high-rank officers in the military, for planning a coup against Erdogan’s government. These prosecutions originated a power shift within the Turkish army and the result was the end of the secular military position.
With this move, Erdogan will be able to full control the military and to remove any opposition. Including the press.
Make no mistake. What is at stake is power. Absolut power. And how that goal will materialize is irrelevant. As such, it does not matter if it will be a Caliphate, an Islamic republic or something else. Whatever it is, it will seriously affect Turkish democracy and the rule of law. Most likely, permanently.
A curfew, martial law and the preparation of a new constitution was announced. What will emerge from a new constitution is not important. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long sought such circumstances. He wants to be Turkey’s ruler until his death. At least. Erdogan wants to be greater than Ataturk and in order to achieve that aura he will kill Turkey’s democracy.
P.S. – NATO is the big question. I believe that is prudent to begin considering the possibility of Turkey leave NATO.